Adobe predicts AI-assisted online shopping to grow 520% during the 2025 U.S. holiday season

Core Insights - The U.S. holiday shopping season is projected to generate $253.4 billion in online sales, reflecting a 5.3% increase year-over-year [1] Group 1: Sales Predictions - Cyber Monday is expected to be the largest shopping day, with sales reaching $14.2 billion, up 6.3% year-over-year [3] - Black Friday sales are forecasted to grow by 8.3% year-over-year, totaling $11.7 billion [3] - Online spending on Thanksgiving Day is anticipated to be $6.4 billion, marking a 4.9% increase year-over-year [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior Trends - Discounts are expected to drive sales, with products anticipated to be 28% off listed prices [4] - The use of mobile devices for shopping is projected to reach a record 56.1% share of online transactions, up from 54.5% last year [7] - Generative AI-powered shopping is predicted to see a 520% increase in traffic year-over-year, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving [5] Group 3: AI and Technology Impact - A survey indicates that 53% of consumers may use AI services for research before purchases, with 40% using AI for recommendations [6] - AI is expected to be most utilized in categories such as toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care [6] Group 4: Payment Methods - Buy now, pay later (BNPL) services are projected to drive $20.2 billion in online spending, an 11% increase year-over-year [10] - Cyber Monday is expected to see BNPL spending reach $1.04 billion, up 5% year-over-year [10] Group 5: Advertising Influence - Social media advertising is anticipated to drive a 51% increase in online revenue year-over-year, a significant rise from 5% growth in 2024 [11] Group 6: Top Spending Categories - The leading categories for spending include electronics at $57.5 billion (up 4% YoY), apparel at $47.6 billion (up 4.4% YoY), and furniture at $31.1 billion (up 6.5% YoY) [12]