RBC Capital Markets' Gerard Cassidy: Fifth Third Bank deal signals regulatory regime is different

Core Viewpoint - Fifth Third Bank is set to acquire Comica for $10.9 billion, which will create the ninth largest bank in the U.S. with approximately $288 billion in assets [1]. Financial Metrics - The acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to earnings upon closing and integration in 2027, and it will not dilute tangible book value per share, which is a positive indicator for shareholders [2]. - Fifth Third's shares have recovered from previous weaknesses following the announcement of the deal [3]. Regulatory Environment - The current regulatory environment is more favorable for bank mergers, with deals being announced and closed within six months, compared to the previous administration where it took 12 to 18 months [4][5]. - This improved regulatory landscape supports ongoing banking consolidation, which has been a trend for over 30 years [5]. Loan Growth Outlook - There is an observed increase in commercial and industrial (CNI) loan growth, driven by rising capital expenditures due to favorable tax treatments [6]. - The integration of Comica is expected to yield cost savings and enhance Fifth Third's business lines, contributing to further loan growth [7]. Credit Cycle Context - Current credit cycles are not expected to lead to significant issues for the banking industry, as there is no imminent recession forecasted [8][9]. - Subprime auto issues are not seen as a contagion risk for banks, as they are largely outside the banking system [8]. Future M&A Activity - Potential future acquisition targets include First Horizon, which previously had a deal with TD Canada Trust that fell through [10]. - The outlook for banks is positive, but it may require some stress in the market to encourage more sellers to come to the table [12][13].