Schlosstein Doesn't Expect Shutdown to Cause Recession

Group 1: Government Shutdown Implications - The current government shutdown appears to be more prolonged due to a lack of communication between the parties involved, differing from historical instances where resolutions were typically reached quickly [2][3] - The president's potential aim to reduce the size of government could have a more significant impact on GDP than usual, as past shutdowns often resulted in backpay that mitigated economic effects [3][5] - The upcoming military payday on October 15th is a critical date, as both parties may want to avoid being blamed for not paying troops, which could prompt negotiations [4] Group 2: Economic and Credit Rating Concerns - The risk of a recession stemming from the shutdown is considered minor, as shutdowns are generally short-lived and spending delays are usually compensated later [5][6] - Credit rating agencies have already downgraded U.S. debt, citing shutdowns and political dysfunction, which raises concerns about U.S. fiscal governance [6][7] - Persistent dysfunction in Washington may lead rating agencies to question whether the U.S. can effectively utilize its resources to maintain credit ratings [7][8] Group 3: Fiscal Sustainability - The U.S. is currently on an unsustainable fiscal path, with uncertainty about what will trigger a necessary change, but a significant adjustment is anticipated when it occurs [8][9]