The 2025 mid-year market outlook: Opportunity amid uncertainty

Core Insights - The current market environment is characterized by heightened uncertainty, which can lead to missed investment opportunities if investors become overly cautious [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Growth and Inflation - The three major economies (China, Eurozone, and the US) are experiencing different growth and inflation dynamics, with China showing 5.4% GDP growth and 0.6% inflation, the Eurozone at 1.5% GDP growth and 2.3% inflation, and the US at 2.1% GDP growth and 2.8% inflation [6][7] - The International Monetary Fund projects global economic growth at 3.3% for 2025 and 2026, indicating that the major economies will likely continue their current growth trajectories [7][8] - The US share market outperformed in 2023 and 2024 due to accelerating economic growth, while China's deceleration in early 2024 led to underperformance in its shares [8][9] Group 2: Central Bank Policies - Central banks are diverging in their approaches, with the Bank of Japan tightening while the US Federal Reserve remains cautious due to inflationary pressures and potential de-dollarisation [12][16] - The focus of central banks is shifting towards national economic conditions, which may lead to differing monetary policies as they balance employment and price stability [14][16] Group 3: Government Debt and Fiscal Policies - Global public debt reached US$98 trillion in 2024, representing 94% of global GDP, raising concerns about sustainability and the potential for austerity measures [19][20] - The US dollar's status as the world's reserve currency provides a unique position, but any significant shift away from it could impact creditworthiness and market stability [22][32] Group 4: Trade Relations and Geopolitical Risks - The potential for trade wars, particularly between the US and China, poses a significant risk to global markets, with the possibility of tariffs leading to a decoupling of major economies [27][28] - While current conflicts may not significantly impact markets, the risk of escalation remains, particularly in strategically important regions [24][26] Group 5: Retail Investor Behavior - The rise of online trading platforms has increased retail investor participation, leading to a preference for well-known brands and household names in stock selection [34][36] - This shift in behavior may influence market dynamics, especially during market corrections where popular stocks could face heavy selling [38] Group 6: Future Scenarios for Investment - Several potential scenarios for the second half of 2025 include a steady growth environment, a recession risk scenario, a significant downturn due to trade tensions, and an unexpected economic recovery [39][51] - Each scenario presents different implications for investment strategies, emphasizing the need for adaptability in response to changing market conditions [42][49]