实探“双节”车市：车企降价促销力度收缩，四季度有望实现5%~10%同比增长

Core Insights - The traditional "Silver October" sales peak in the automotive market has begun with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, but promotional activities from car manufacturers have decreased compared to previous years [1][3] - Several brands, including Li Auto and Xpeng, have announced promotional policies, but the actual discounts for consumers are only around 2,000 to 3,000 yuan, indicating a cautious approach to pricing [3][6] - The reduction in promotional intensity is attributed to factors such as increased regulatory scrutiny on "involution" competition and rising raw material prices [1][3] Promotional Activities - Seven automotive brands have launched National Day-specific promotional policies, including cash subsidies and financing options, with most promotions ending between October 8 and October 12 [1] - Despite some brands offering comprehensive discounts, the actual savings for consumers are minimal compared to previous years [3][6] Market Dynamics - The automotive market is expected to experience a "tail effect" in the fourth quarter, driven by strong demand and the upcoming reintroduction of the new energy vehicle purchase tax [3][16] - The cessation of certain local "trade-in" subsidies has led to a noticeable decline in customer foot traffic and sales in some regions, particularly in Nanchang [7][11] Regional Policy Changes - Some regions, including Jiangxi, have suspended their automotive trade-in subsidy programs, impacting consumer behavior and sales volume [8][17] - Despite some areas halting these subsidies, most regions are expected to maintain their "trade-in" policies throughout the year, supported by a national fund of 69 billion yuan for consumer subsidies [20]