实探“双节”车市：车企降价促销力度收缩，四季度有望实现5%~10%增长

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is experiencing a contraction in promotional activities during the traditional "Silver Ten" sales season, with a notable decrease in discount intensity compared to previous years, influenced by various factors including regulatory policies and rising raw material costs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Promotional Activities - Several automotive brands, including Li Auto, Xpeng, GAC Honda, and GAC Toyota, have announced promotional policies for the National Day holiday, offering cash subsidies, trade-in incentives, and limited-time discounts, with most promotions ending around October 8 or 12 [1][3]. - Despite some brands offering comprehensive discounts amounting to tens of thousands, the actual savings for consumers during the holiday period are only around 2,000 to 3,000 yuan, indicating a significant reduction in promotional efforts [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The automotive industry is facing a cautious approach to price reductions due to increased regulatory scrutiny on "involution" competition and rising prices of raw materials like lithium carbonate, which limits the scope for price wars [1][4]. - The upcoming reintroduction of the new energy vehicle purchase tax in 2026, along with potential changes to supportive policies, is expected to drive demand in the fourth quarter, leading to a noticeable "tail effect" in sales [4][6]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The suspension of trade-in subsidies in certain regions has significantly impacted foot traffic and sales during the holiday period, with many consumers adopting a wait-and-see attitude [7][10]. - In regions like Nanchang, the cessation of trade-in subsidies has led to a marked decrease in customer visits and sales, with some consumers reporting a potential loss of 8,000 to 10,000 yuan in savings due to the subsidy withdrawal [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, there is optimism among dealers, with 44.4% predicting a 5% to 10% year-on-year increase in sales for the fourth quarter, supported by concentrated consumer demand during the holiday and year-end promotional activities [13][14]. - The national government plans to allocate 69 billion yuan to support local "trade-in" subsidy policies, suggesting that most regions will continue to implement these subsidies throughout the year [14][16].