Why Archer Aviation Belongs on Your Watchlist, Not in Your Portfolio (Yet)

Core Viewpoint - Archer Aviation aims to revolutionize urban travel with its electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, but the investment landscape remains uncertain due to significant risks [1][2]. Group 1: Company Vision and Development - Archer's flagship aircraft, Midnight, is designed to transport four passengers and a pilot over short urban routes, promising quieter flights, lower emissions, and faster travel compared to ground options [3]. - The company has secured partnerships with United Airlines, which has placed a conditional order for up to 200 aircraft, and Stellantis for manufacturing support, along with contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense for military applications [4]. - Management anticipates launching its first commercial flights in 2026, pending FAA approval, with the potential to tap into a market projected to reach trillions of dollars in the coming decades [5]. Group 2: Progress and Market Context - Archer is making progress without commercial sales, with advancements in its Covington, Georgia factory and production of six Midnight aircraft, three of which are in final assembly [6]. - The company has delivered its first Midnight aircraft to the UAE for flight testing in Abu Dhabi, expecting initial payments later this year [7]. - The macro environment favors Archer, as cities face traffic congestion and governments promote greener transportation options, making eVTOL aircraft a viable solution [8]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Archer is experiencing ongoing cash burn, with operating expenses exceeding an annualized rate of $700 million, despite raising $850 million, leading to potential future shareholder dilution [10]. - Regulatory challenges, particularly FAA certification, pose significant hurdles, with the risk of delays and complications in scaling production [12]. - The competitive landscape is intense, with rivals like Joby Aviation and Lilium advancing in the certification process, increasing the risk of Archer becoming less competitive [13].