3 Singapore Stocks That May Struggle in a Lower-Rate Environment

Group 1: Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Ltd (OCBC) - Lower interest rates are expected to negatively impact OCBC's net interest margin (NIM) and profitability, with NIM declining from a high of 2.31% in 4Q2022 to 1.92% [2][3][4] - Net interest income (NII) for 2Q2025 was S$2.3 billion, accounting for 64.4% of total income, reflecting a 6% year-on-year decline [3][4] - An interim dividend of S$0.41 per share for 1H2025 was declared, representing a 6.8% decrease from S$0.44 in 1H2024, with a constant payout ratio of 50% [4] Group 2: Great Eastern Holdings (GE) - Great Eastern Holdings may experience earnings pressure due to lower interest rates affecting investment income from its financial assets [5][6] - For 1H2025, GE's net profit increased by 1% year-on-year to S$593.7 million, but profit from its insurance business declined by 8% to S$415.2 million [7][8] - New business embedded value (NBEV) surged 16% year-on-year to S$316.5 million, indicating potential future profit growth despite current challenges [8][9] Group 3: Singapore Airlines (SIA) - Singapore Airlines could face earnings pressure as lower rates may indicate slower global economic growth, impacting passenger demand and cargo volumes [10][11] - In 1QFY2025/2026, SIA reported revenue of S$4.8 billion, a 1.5% year-on-year increase, but operating profit declined by 14% to S$404.5 million due to increased competition and higher non-fuel costs [11] - SIA's total debt of S$11.5 billion may benefit from lower global rates through reduced financing costs during refinancing [12]