Shell third quarter 2025 update note

Core Insights - The company provides an updated outlook for Q3 2025, with results to be finalized and published on October 30, 2025 [1] Integrated Gas - Production is expected to be between 910 and 950 kboe/d, slightly lower than Q2 2025's 913 kboe/d [2] - LNG liquefaction volumes are projected to increase to between 7.0 and 7.4 million tonnes from 6.7 million tonnes in Q2 2025 [2] - Underlying operating expenses (opex) are expected to remain stable at 1.0 to 1.2 billion [2] - Pre-tax depreciation is forecasted to be between 1.4 and 1.8 billion, down from 1.6 billion in Q2 2025 [2] - Taxation charge is anticipated to be between 0.4 and 0.7 billion, a decrease from 0.5 billion in Q2 2025 [2] Upstream - Production is expected to rise to between 1,790 and 1,890 kboe/d, up from 1,732 kboe/d in Q2 2025 [4] - Underlying opex is projected to be between 1.9 and 2.5 billion, slightly lower than Q2 2025's 2.0 billion [4] - Pre-tax depreciation is expected to be between 2.3 and 2.9 billion, down from 2.4 billion in Q2 2025 [4] - Taxation charge is forecasted to be between 1.5 and 2.3 billion, a decrease from 2.2 billion in Q2 2025 [4] Marketing - Sales volumes are projected to be between 2,650 and 3,050 kb/d, down from 2,813 kb/d in Q2 2025 [6] - Underlying opex is expected to be between 2.4 and 2.8 billion, slightly lower than Q2 2025's 2.5 billion [6] - Pre-tax depreciation is forecasted to be between 0.5 and 0.7 billion, down from 0.6 billion in Q2 2025 [6] - Taxation charge is anticipated to be between 0.2 and 0.6 billion, a decrease from 0.4 billion in Q2 2025 [6] Chemicals and Products - Indicative refining margin is expected to increase to $11.6 per barrel from $8.9 per barrel in Q2 2025 [8] - Indicative chemicals margin is projected to decrease slightly to $160 per tonne from $166 per tonne in Q2 2025 [8] - Refinery utilization is expected to remain stable at 94% to 98% [8] - Chemicals utilization is projected to increase to between 79% and 83% from 72% in Q2 2025 [8] Shell Group Financials - Cash flow from operations (CFFO) is expected to be impacted by a tax payment decrease to between 2.1 and 2.9 billion from 3.4 billion in Q2 2025 [10] - Non-cash post-tax impairments of approximately $0.6 billion are anticipated in the Marketing segment due to the Rotterdam HEFA project cancellation [11] - An increase in gearing of 0.4% is expected in Q3 2025 related to new pension legislation in the Netherlands [11] Adjusted Earnings - Adjusted earnings for Q3 2025 are expected to reflect a loss in the Renewables and Energy Solutions segment, estimated between (0.2) and (0.4) billion [21][22] - Corporate adjusted earnings are projected to be between (0.5) and (0.3) billion, consistent with Q2 2025 [22]