日债、法债重挫 “政坛黑天鹅”让市场猝不及防

Core Insights - Unexpected political turmoil in Japan and France is impacting global financial markets, raising concerns about the fiscal stability of major economies and leading to significant sell-offs in Japanese and French government bonds [1] Group 1: Japan's Political Shift - The unexpected victory of Sanna Takashi in the ruling party leadership election has locked in her position as the next Prime Minister, which is interpreted as a signal for increased government spending and potential inflation [2][3] - Following this political shift, the Japanese yen depreciated by 1.8% against the US dollar and reached a historical low against the euro, while the 10-year government bond yield surged to its highest level in over a decade [3] Group 2: France's Political Crisis - The sudden resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, just a month into his term, has deepened the political crisis in France, marking the fifth Prime Minister to resign in two years due to challenges in passing fiscal measures [3] - This political instability has led to a rise in French government bond yields, with the 10-year yield increasing by 9 basis points to 3.6%, and the spread between French and German bond yields widening to 89 basis points [3] Group 3: Shift to Safe-Haven Assets - The political upheavals in Japan and France have intensified investor concerns regarding the fiscal health of major economies, prompting a shift towards "currency devaluation trades" as investors move away from traditional currencies [4][5] - As a result, alternative assets such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin are experiencing significant demand, with gold prices reaching new highs and Bitcoin trading near its historical peak [6]