IEA下调全球可再生能源增长预期

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its forecast for global renewable energy generation capacity growth by 900 gigawatts (GW) for 2030, primarily due to changes in policy environments in the US and China [1] Group 1: Global Renewable Energy Capacity Forecast - By 2030, global renewable energy capacity is expected to increase by 4600 GW, a significant decrease from the previously predicted 5500 GW in 2024 [2] - The downward revision is largely attributed to the early expiration of federal tax incentives in the US and other regulatory changes, leading to a nearly 50% drop in the IEA's growth expectations for US capacity [3] - In China, the market-oriented transformation of new energy grid pricing has weakened the economic feasibility of projects [3] Group 2: Regional Developments - Despite the slowdown in the US and China, strong growth in India, Europe, and other emerging economies partially offsets this impact [2] - India is projected to become the second-largest growth market globally, following China, and is expected to easily meet its 2030 targets [3] - Europe is experiencing improved growth prospects due to proactive policies, expanded auction sizes, and streamlined approval processes [3] Group 3: Future Growth Drivers - IEA Director Birol emphasized that the growth of global renewable energy capacity in the coming years will be primarily driven by solar energy [2] - He urged policymakers to focus on supply chain security and grid upgrades to support the ongoing development of renewable energy [3] - Emerging economies in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are accelerating clean energy initiatives, aided by declining costs and enhanced targets [3]