因特朗普关税世行大幅下调明年南亚增长预期至5.8%，印度情况如何？

Core Insights - The World Bank predicts that India will remain the fastest-growing major economy globally, driven by strong consumption growth, increased agricultural output, and rising rural wages [1][3] - South Asia's economic growth is expected to slow down significantly, with a forecast of 5.8% for 2026, marking the lowest growth rate in 25 years [1][4] - The report emphasizes the need for trade liberalization and technology adoption to create job opportunities and stimulate growth in the region [1][6] Economic Growth Projections - South Asia's GDP growth is projected at 6.4% for 2024, 6.6% for 2025, and 5.8% for 2026, with a downward revision of 0.6 percentage points for 2026 [2] - India is forecasted to grow at 9.2% in 2024, 6.5% in 2025, and 6.5% in 2026, with a slight upward revision of 0.2 percentage points for 2025 [2] - Bangladesh's growth is expected to accelerate to 4.8% in 2025/26 and 6.3% in 2026/27, while Sri Lanka's growth forecast for 2026 has been raised to 3.5% [3][4] Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on South Asian economies, with India facing a 50% tariff, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka facing 20%, and Nepal, Bhutan, and Maldives facing 10% [3][4] - The tariffs have resulted in significant increases in the effective tax rates on exports, with Bangladesh's exports facing a total of 35% tariffs and Sri Lanka's at 30% [3] Trade and Investment Recommendations - The World Bank suggests that South Asian countries should lower trade barriers, particularly on intermediate goods, to enhance manufacturing and job creation [4][5] - The report highlights that the service sector, which has lower tariffs, has contributed to three-quarters of job growth in the past decade [5] Artificial Intelligence Potential - The report advocates for leveraging AI to boost productivity and income, noting that demand for AI skills is rapidly increasing, with a wage premium of nearly 30% compared to other professions [6] - It emphasizes that trade openness and AI application could transform the South Asian region, necessitating policies that facilitate labor reallocation to productive sectors [6]