特朗普政府拟推百亿农业补贴，豆农：比起补贴更想要市场

Core Insights - U.S. soybean farmers prefer stable markets over government subsidies, indicating a desire for trade agreements rather than financial aid [1][3][8] - The U.S. government is preparing to announce substantial support measures for farmers, potentially exceeding $10 billion, but these measures may only provide temporary relief [1][8] Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. soybean export value is projected to reach $24.58 billion in 2024, accounting for 14% of total agricultural exports [1] - China was the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, purchasing $12.64 billion worth last year, but has not bought any since May [2] - As of January-August 2025, China's soybean imports totaled 73.31 million tons, with Brazil supplying 71.6% and the U.S. only 22.8% [2] Group 2: Financial Pressures - Current market conditions are reminiscent of previous trade disputes, with U.S. farmers losing approximately 20% market share to Brazil during past tariffs [5] - Increased costs for fertilizers, pesticides, and equipment have significantly raised the cost of soybean production, leading to a deteriorating profit margin [6] - The breakeven price for U.S. soybeans is projected to rise from $12.35 to $12.50 per bushel, while current futures prices are significantly lower, causing financial strain on farmers [6] Group 3: Government Response - The Trump administration is considering using tariff revenues to subsidize farmers and is collaborating with agricultural credit agencies to ensure funding for the next planting season [8] - Previous government aid programs provided $28 billion to farmers in 2018 and 2019, but experts argue that such measures do not address the long-term loss of market share [8] - The administration's proposal to increase biofuel blending quotas aims to boost domestic demand for soybeans, but may not sufficiently offset export losses [8] Group 4: Urgency for Trade Agreements - There is a pressing need for a trade agreement with China, as delays could lead to China sourcing soybeans from Brazil and Argentina, potentially resulting in a permanent loss of market access for U.S. farmers [9]