Should You Invest in Crude Oil ETFs Now?

Group 1 - Crude oil prices increased by approximately 1% on October 5, 2025, following OPEC+'s announcement of a modest output increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November, consistent with the previous month's announcement [1][2] - OPEC+ attributed the output increase to a steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals, but noted that future production adjustments may depend on market conditions, indicating a cautious stance regarding potential oversupply [2][5] - The U.S. economy is expected to slow in Q4 2025, with S&P Global Ratings projecting a growth rate of 1.9% for the year and a year-over-year real GDP growth of 1.5% in Q4, down from 2.5% in 2024 [3] Group 2 - U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories rose more than expected in the week ending September 26, indicating a slowdown in refining activity and consumption, with total product supplied declining by 627,000 barrels per day [4] - Geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions may support oil prices, as OPEC+'s production increase could be manageable amid rising supply disruptions due to sanctions against Russia and Iran [5][6] - The outlook for the oil market is moderately bearish due to concerns over potential oversupply, which may limit any positive price impacts from geopolitical risks [7]