Goldman Sachs' Luke Barrs: We expect the dollar to depreciate in the medium-term

Market Overview - The current equity rally is characterized as a global affair with significant participation from various markets, driven by different dynamics [2][3] - Earnings growth is crucial for sustaining market momentum, with companies reporting favorable earnings despite external uncertainties [3][12] Capital Expenditure Trends - A notable increase in capital expenditure (capex) is observed, with a projected 50% rise this year, amounting to $350 billion, and expectations of close to a trillion dollars over the next three years [7] - The hyperscale capex trend, particularly in AI, is expected to benefit companies involved in this sector [4][7] Fiscal Policy Changes - There is a shift towards fiscal expansion in regions like Germany, with increased spending in sectors such as defense and infrastructure, which is expected to positively impact corporate fundamentals [8][9] - The unification and reform efforts in Europe are progressing, albeit slower than anticipated [8] Currency and Global Growth - Global growth is showing positive trends across key markets, with implications for currency dynamics, including a weakening yen and a strengthening dollar [6][10] - Central banks are diversifying reserve positions away from the dollar, although it remains the primary reserve currency [10][11] Corporate Earnings and Valuations - Despite potential corrections in the market, corporate earnings are expected to remain strong, with many companies demonstrating pricing power to pass costs onto consumers [12][15] - Valuations, particularly for larger cap companies, are viewed as relatively healthy, with ongoing earnings growth providing comfort despite high trading multiples [14][15]