Carlyle's Jason Thomas: There's 'so much enthusiasm' around AI right now

Economic Indicators - The latest data indicates that payroll employment growth for September was only 17,000, significantly lower than the typical growth of about 200,000 per month observed earlier in 2025 [4][5] - There is a notable disconnect between the low job growth and the GDP growth, which is reported at an annualized rate of 2.7% through the end of September [5][6] Consumer Behavior - A recovery in consumer spending is noted, particularly among higher-income households, with about 35% of households having mortgages originated before 2022, insulating them from interest rate risks [7] - A decline of 150 basis points in delinquency rates for consumer loans among the bottom third of households by income suggests a potential broadening of consumption growth [8] Capital Expenditures and AI - The current capital expenditure (capex) boom, particularly in AI, is the largest seen in over 25 years and appears unaffected by higher interest rates [9] - In Q3, AI contributed approximately 70 basis points to GDP growth, indicating a growing but relatively smaller impact on overall economic growth [10] Corporate Investment Trends - There is significant enthusiasm for AI among corporate management teams, with pressures to adopt AI technologies to avoid falling behind competitors [11][13] - The construction sector shows bleak prospects except for data centers, which are experiencing robust growth [12]