The market's like a paddling duck—calm on top, chaos underneath, says RBC's Amy Wu Silverman

Market Volatility and Options - The VIX has remained muted, significantly below earlier highs despite ongoing market events such as government shutdowns and tariffs [1][2] - There is a perception that while the market appears calm, there are underlying movements that are canceling each other out, akin to a "paddling duck" [3][4] - Historically, investors have focused on downside protection through options, but there is a shift towards concerns about missing out on upside opportunities, particularly in tech stocks [5][6] Options Market Dynamics - There is an increase in call options trading, especially in NASDAQ and S&P stocks, driven by fear of missing out (FOMO) on potential gains from AI and tech stocks [7][9] - The demand for downside options is currently low, but it is expected to rise as earnings dates approach for major tech companies [10] Financial Sector Insights - The ongoing government shutdown has not yet impacted pricing in the financial sector or the broader market, but expectations are that this will change [10][11] - The options market is currently pricing in a resolution to the shutdown before the next Federal Reserve meeting, with potential increases in VIX if uncertainty continues [11][12] - Financials, represented by ETFs like KRE or XLF, are typically a good area for volatility trading, as they often experience significant idiosyncratic stock movements [12]