New York Federal Reserve: Inflation expectations rise, unemployment concerns increase

Core Insights - Inflation expectations are rising, with one-year expectations increasing by 0.2% to 3.4%, the highest since April 2025 [2] - Concerns about unemployment are also increasing, with expectations for higher unemployment rising by two percentage points to 41.1%, the highest since April 2025 [3] Inflation Expectations - One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4%, while three-year expectations remained unchanged at 3% [2] - Five-year inflation expectations increased by 0.1% to 3%, the highest since May 2024 [2] - Expectations for food prices have reached their highest level since March 2023 [2] Labor Market Insights - Earnings growth expectations have declined by 0.1% to 2.4%, marking the third consecutive decline and the lowest since May 2021 [3] - Job loss expectations increased by 0.4% to 14.9%, the highest since April 2025 [4] - Despite rising job loss expectations, the outlook for finding a job improved by 2.5 points, although it remains near pandemic lows [4] Spending and Economic Outlook - Spending growth expectations have decreased by 0.3% to 4.7% [5] - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges regarding its inflation target, as the five-year inflation outlook has remained at 3% for an extended period [7] - There are discussions about the impact of supply-side policies and immigration changes on inflation expectations [8]