How Will the Novelis Fire Affect Ford's Aluminum Supply?

Core Insights - Ford Motor Company faces potential production challenges due to a fire at Novelis' aluminum plant in Oswego, New York, which has disrupted a key supply of aluminum for the F-150 pickup [1][9] - Novelis supplies approximately 40% of the aluminum sheet used by U.S. automakers, with Ford being its largest customer [2] - Ford is actively working with Novelis and exploring alternative sourcing options to mitigate supply disruptions [3][9] Company Impact - The fire has forced much of the Oswego facility offline until early next year, impacting Ford's production of its most profitable model, the F-150 [1][9] - Ford is expected to detail the financial and operational impact of the outage in its upcoming earnings report [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford's EPS for 2025 and 2026 has increased by 2 cents and 4 cents, respectively, in the past 60 days [10] Industry Context - The incident adds to existing supply-chain challenges in the auto industry, which has already been affected by trade tensions, semiconductor shortages, and reliance on China for rare-earth materials [4] - Other major automakers, including Toyota, Hyundai, Volkswagen, and Stellantis, also source aluminum from Novelis and are taking steps to manage the situation [6][7] - Stellantis is diversifying its supplier base to reduce reliance on individual vendors and better manage supply risks [7] Financial Performance - Ford has outperformed the Zacks Automotive-Domestic industry year to date, with shares gaining 28.3% compared to the industry's growth of 8% [8] - From a valuation perspective, Ford appears undervalued, trading at a forward sales multiple of 0.31, significantly lower than the industry's 3.32 [11]