Will Rising Credit Exposure Put MercadoLibre's Margins Under Pressure?

Core Insights - MercadoLibre's lending growth is outpacing profitability, raising concerns about margin stability [1] - The company's credit volume surged 91% year-over-year to $9.3 billion, with credit cards making up 43% of the loan book [2][8] - Net Interest Margin After Losses decreased to 23% from 31.1% a year ago, indicating pressure on profitability [2] - High levels of loans over 90 days past due at 18.5% suggest ongoing credit quality issues [3][8] - Increased competition from Sea Limited and Nu Holdings in the fintech space is likely to intensify pressure on lending margins [5] Lending Growth and Financial Metrics - Total credit volume increased by 91% year-over-year to $9.3 billion, driven by a 118% rise in credit card usage [2][8] - Fintech revenues grew 30% year-over-year to $2.95 billion, reflecting strong lending momentum but also highlighting efficiency challenges [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 fintech revenue is projected at $3.23 billion, indicating a 27% year-over-year increase [2] Credit Quality and Risk Factors - Provisioning and funding costs are expected to rise faster than income, putting operating leverage at risk [3][4] - New credit card cohorts typically take several quarters to reach breakeven, maintaining pressure on returns during rapid issuance [3] - The combination of higher reserves, slower cohort profitability, and elevated funding needs could keep margins under pressure [4] Competitive Landscape - MercadoLibre faces increasing competition from Sea Limited and Nu Holdings in digital lending and credit services across Latin America [5] - Sea Limited is expanding personal loans and payment products in Brazil and Mexico, overlapping with MercadoLibre's offerings [5] - Nu Holdings is leveraging its customer base and data-driven underwriting to accelerate credit card and consumer lending growth [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - MELI shares have increased 26.7% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry and the Retail-Wholesale sector [6] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 3.27X, compared to the industry's 2.23X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MELI's third-quarter 2025 earnings is $9.88 per share, indicating a 26.18% year-over-year growth [13]