New York Stock Exchange Owner Bets $2 Billion On Polymarket Comeback

Core Insights - Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced a $2 billion investment in Polymarket, valuing the prediction market at over $8 billion [1][2] - The investment positions ICE as a global distributor of Polymarket's event-driven data and includes plans for collaboration on tokenization initiatives [1] - The investment comes ahead of Polymarket's planned U.S. relaunch, which is currently delayed due to a government shutdown affecting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [2] Regulatory Context - In 2022, the CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4 million for operating without proper market licenses, leading to the shutdown of certain markets and blocking U.S. users [3] - The CFTC concluded its investigation into Polymarket in July 2025, allowing the company to acquire QCEX for $112 million, providing a legal pathway to operate in the U.S. [3] Industry Significance - ICE's investment is seen as a legitimizing force for prediction markets, with a more favorable regulatory environment emerging under the current administration compared to the previous one [4] - Polymarket's CEO views the investment as a significant step towards integrating prediction markets into the financial mainstream [4] Company Background - Founded in 2020, Polymarket has rapidly evolved from a niche crypto prediction platform to a leading startup in decentralized finance, attracting investments from notable tech billionaires [6] - In August, Polymarket raised $135 million in a funding round led by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, increasing its valuation to $1 billion [6] - The company has gained further credibility with investments from high-profile figures, including Donald Trump Jr., who joined its advisory board [6] Market Activity - Polymarket is currently running a market predicting its own future, with 99% of traders betting that it will go live in the U.S. in 2025 [5]