A Market Bear's 'Sleep at Night' Fund Is Beating the S&P 500 This Year

Core Viewpoint - David Rosenberg, a well-known economist and founder of Rosenberg Research, has established a fund based on his bearish outlook on the US economy, which has yielded significant returns this year [1][2]. Performance Summary - The Rosie Macro Fund has achieved a 28% return year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 14% gain [2]. - From February to April 2023, the fund outperformed the S&P 500 by over 1,200 basis points and the typical 60/40 stock-bond portfolio by 460 basis points during a market downturn caused by tariffs [2]. Fund Composition - The fund includes a diverse range of investments, focusing on capital preservation and cash flows, with significant allocations to US Treasury ETFs, defense technology, uranium, and gold [4][7]. - Key holdings include: - US Treasury 10-year Note ETF (9.8%) - US Treasury 2-Year Note ETF (9.0%) - Global X Defense Tech ETF (7.1%) - Global X Uranium ETF (6.6%) - SPDR Gold Shares ETF (6.6%) [7]. Future Plans - Rosenberg's firm is in the process of converting the Rosie Macro Fund into a listed exchange-traded fund (ETF), potentially launching as early as January [8]. Economic Outlook - Rosenberg maintains a pessimistic view on the US economy, predicting a recession and a period of negative returns for stocks, contrasting with the prevailing bullish sentiment on Wall Street [9].