世贸组织大幅下调2026年全球货物贸易增长预期

Group 1 - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly lowered the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%, down from the previous prediction of 1.8% made in August [1] - The report indicates that the slowdown in goods trade will also indirectly impact service trade, with global service export growth expected to decline from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, and further to 4.4% in 2026 [1] - Trade restrictions and policy uncertainties are spreading across more economies and industries, posing major downside risks to global trade [4] Group 2 - Despite the challenges posed by unilateral tariff measures and trade policy uncertainties, the global trade system shows resilience, supported by the stability provided by the multilateral trade system and appropriate responses from members to tariff changes [4] - The WTO has revised the global goods trade growth forecast for 2025 upward to 2.4%, from the previous estimate of 0.9% made in August [6] - In the first half of 2025, global goods trade volume is expected to grow by 4.9% year-on-year, with the dollar value of global goods trade increasing by 6%, driven by factors such as increased imports in North America to avoid high tariffs, improved macroeconomic conditions, and a surge in demand for AI-related products [6]