Crude Prices Push Higher After OPEC+ Agrees to a Modest Production Hike

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are rising due to OPEC+'s smaller-than-expected increase in crude production levels and reduced Russian crude production following a drone attack [2][3][4] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has agreed to a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting next month, which is significantly lower than market expectations of up to 500,000 bpd [3] - OPEC's crude production rose by 400,000 bpd in September to 29.05 million bpd, marking the highest level in 2.5 years [6] Group 2: Russian Production Impact - Russia's Kirishi oil refinery, with a capacity of 160,000 bpd, has halted most of its production due to a Ukrainian drone attack, contributing to a reduction in Russian crude exports [4] - Ukrainian attacks have targeted at least 15 Russian refineries in the past two months, leading to a decrease in Russia's total refined-product flows to 1.94 million bpd, the lowest in over 3.25 years [4] Group 3: Global Oil Supply Dynamics - A decrease in crude oil held on tankers, which fell by 7% week-over-week to 82.81 million barrels, is seen as bullish for oil prices [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a record surplus in the global oil market next year of 3.33 million bpd, which is 360,000 bpd more than previously estimated [7]