达利欧最新发声：黄金比美元更安全，美联储降息并非万能药

Group 1 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes that gold is a key store of value during times of increased government debt, comparing the current situation to the early 1970s when inflation and debt pressures undermined confidence in the dollar [2][3] - Dalio recommends that investors hold approximately 15% of their portfolios in gold to mitigate potential currency devaluation and credit risks, noting that gold performs well when other assets decline [3] - The price of gold surpassed $4000 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 50% [3] Group 2 - Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, also advocates for increasing gold exposure in investment portfolios, suggesting a maximum allocation of 25% due to inflationary pressures and a weakening dollar [4] - Dalio warns that the U.S. fiscal and debt situation is entering a dangerous phase, with projected expenditures of approximately $7 trillion against revenues of about $5 trillion, resulting in a 40% deficit [5] - The total U.S. debt has reached six times its income, leading to concerns about rising debt costs squeezing real economic spending [5] Group 3 - Dalio identifies five interwoven macro cycles that drive historical and current global changes, including debt and currency cycles, wealth and value gap cycles, international geopolitical cycles, natural forces, and technological change [6] - He expresses caution regarding the valuation bubble in the AI sector, while recognizing the potential opportunities AI presents for efficiency and profit enhancement [6] - Dalio remains optimistic about China as an investment destination, highlighting significant improvements in income and life expectancy since 1984, and noting China's advancements in AI applications [7]