以10年数据看，10月A股首日“开门红” 概率达到70%

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to perform positively in October 2023, supported by historical trends and optimistic institutional forecasts [1] Historical Performance - From 2000 to 2024, the average increase of the Shanghai Composite Index on the first trading day of October is 0.48%, with a rise probability of 64% [1] - In the past decade (2015-2024), the rise probability on the first trading day of October increased to 70% [1] Sector Performance - Over the past 25 years, seven sectors have shown an increase probability exceeding 50% in October, including banking, home appliances, and electronics [1] Market Outlook - Institutions are generally optimistic about the October market due to factors like "anti-involution" and improved liquidity [1] - Xiangcai Securities predicts a steady upward trend for A-shares in the fourth quarter, with technology, communication, and non-ferrous metals leading the market [1] - Zhonghang Securities indicates a strong profit potential for A-shares in the fourth quarter based on historical median price changes and win rates [1] Investment Style - The investment style is expected to shift towards value, which is more correlated with economic totals and relatively stable due to policy dynamics and year-end "valuation switching" [1]