历史性突破！美国“停摆”危机火上浇油 现货黄金首度站上4000美元

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by concerns over the U.S. economy and government shutdown, marking a significant milestone in gold's performance [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices have increased over 50% this year, influenced by global trade uncertainties, doubts about the Federal Reserve's independence, and concerns regarding U.S. fiscal stability [1]. - On Wednesday, gold prices rose by more than 0.4%, reaching $4,014.41 per ounce, a stark contrast to two years ago when prices were below $2,000 per ounce [1]. - Historical data shows that gold price surges often coincide with economic and political pressures, with previous milestones at $1,000, $2,000, and $3,000 per ounce during crises [4]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Following the U.S. government funding impasse, investors are seeking to hedge against potential market shocks, leading to significant inflows into gold ETFs, with September recording the largest monthly inflow in over three years [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current economic data pause and approaching interest rate cuts are contributing to a favorable environment for gold as a non-yielding asset [4][7]. - The demand for gold is being driven not only by panic but also by a need for asset reallocation, as investors move away from overvalued sectors like artificial intelligence [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Influence - Central banks have played a crucial role in the current gold price surge, shifting from net sellers to net buyers of gold since the global financial crisis [8][11]. - The pace of gold purchases by central banks has doubled since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, prompting many to consider diversifying their foreign exchange reserves [8]. - Analysts expect the trend of central banks increasing their gold holdings to continue for at least the next three years, indicating a structural shift in foreign reserve management [11]. Group 4: Future Projections - Market analysts predict that if the Federal Reserve softens its stance and lowers interest rates, gold could reach $4,500 per ounce by mid-next year, as it is viewed as a hedge against inflation [7][8]. - The current gold price rally is on track to achieve one of the best annual performances since the 1970s, driven by high inflation and the end of the gold standard [7].