新西兰央行降息50个基点至2.5% 降息幅度超市场预期

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has lowered the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 2.5%, exceeding market expectations of a 25 basis point cut, in an effort to stabilize inflation around the 2% target midpoint in the medium term [1][3]. Economic Activity and Inflation - The RBNZ noted a slight recovery in economic activity in Q3, but significant idle capacity remains in the New Zealand economy [2]. - The annual consumer price index inflation is currently at the upper limit of the RBNZ's target range of 1% to 3%, but overall inflation is expected to decline to the 2% target midpoint by mid-2026 due to idle capacity in the economy [1][2]. - Household consumption is recovering, partly due to lower interest rates, while high commodity prices continue to support the primary sector [1]. Monetary Policy Discussion - The RBNZ discussed two options for the OCR adjustment: a 25 basis point cut or a 50 basis point cut. The decision to cut by 50 basis points was influenced by ongoing idle capacity and the need to support consumption and investment [3]. - The committee expressed concerns about the cautious sentiment among households and businesses, which could hinder economic recovery and reduce mid-term inflation pressure [2][3]. Global Trade and Economic Outlook - Global trade volumes and economic activity remain resilient, with growth expectations for several trading partners, particularly in Asia, being revised upward due to increased investment in AI-related industries and adjustments in global trade flows [2]. - However, growth expectations for 2026 are projected to be modest, with a slowdown anticipated in trading partner economies [2]. Rate Cuts History - Since August 2024, the RBNZ has cumulatively cut rates by 300 basis points [4].