Sugar Prices Supported by Reduced Brazil Cane Yields

Core Insights - Sugar prices experienced a significant rally, with NY sugar reaching a 1.75-month nearest-futures high due to lower sugar production signals from Brazil [2] - Brazil's sugar content in crushed cane decreased, indicating potential declines in sugar output, while higher sugar output in Brazil is generally bearish for prices [4] Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.34 (+2.06%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +6.90 (+1.51%) [1] Production and Supply Dynamics - Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons in the first half of September, but cumulative sugar output for 2025-26 fell -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 million tons [4] - The sugar content in Brazil's crushed cane dropped to 154.58 kg/ton in the first half of September from 160.07 kg/ton a year earlier [2] Global Supply Outlook - StoneX forecasts a global sugar surplus of +2.8 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season, reversing from a deficit of -4.7 million metric tons in the 2024/25 season [3] India’s Production Impact - India's sugar production is projected to increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million metric tons for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [6] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported that cumulative monsoon rain was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a potential bumper sugar crop [5]