黄金周看点 | 白酒市场“旺季不旺”，机构展望“U型”复苏

Core Viewpoint - The traditional peak season for the liquor industry during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day has not materialized as expected, with overall liquor prices down approximately 20% year-on-year, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and market dynamics [1][2]. Price Trends - Overall liquor prices have decreased by about 20% compared to last year's double festival period, despite a slight month-on-month increase in prices for leading brands before the holiday [2]. - Specific brands like Moutai saw a month-on-month price increase of 30-50 yuan per bottle, while Wuliangye increased by 10-20 yuan per bottle, but year-on-year sales remain weak [2]. - The liquor index fell by 3.93% in September, with leading companies like Wuliangye and Moutai experiencing stock price declines of 6.21% and 2.43%, respectively [2]. Changing Consumption Patterns - The importance of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day as peak consumption periods for liquor is decreasing, while the consumption share during the Spring Festival is increasing [3]. - Consumers are now more inclined to spend on travel and experiences rather than liquor, leading to a decline in traditional gifting and consumption scenarios [3]. - A consumer reported spending nearly 20,000 yuan on travel, resulting in reduced expenditure on liquor [3]. Market Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to enter a "U-shaped" recovery cycle, with a potential supply-demand turning point anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025 [3][4]. - Current market conditions indicate that demand is showing signs of marginal improvement, with a gradual reduction in sales decline since August [4]. - The price of Moutai's old liquor is still on a downward trend, with significant declines from historical highs, indicating ongoing pressure in the market [4]. Financial Performance Expectations - The liquor sector's third-quarter reports are expected to remain under pressure, but the decline may narrow due to lower year-on-year comparisons [4]. - Some high-dividend stocks in the sector are considered to have long-term investment value, suggesting opportunities for gradual positioning [4]. - Analysts believe that the industry will need to undergo a "pain period" for demand recovery, but improvements in product structure and consumer experience could lead to a rebound by 2026 [4].