白酒市场“旺季不旺” 机构展望“U型”复苏

Group 1 - The traditional peak season for the liquor industry during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is showing signs of decline, with overall liquor wholesale prices down approximately 20% year-on-year [2][3] - Leading liquor companies have seen a slight month-on-month price recovery before the holiday, but year-on-year sales remain weak, particularly in gift box sales, while mid-range products priced between 100 to 300 yuan have shown stable sales [3][4] - The liquor index has dropped by 3.93% in September, with major companies like Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai experiencing stock price declines of 6.21% and 2.43% respectively [3] Group 2 - The importance of the traditional peak season for liquor consumption is decreasing, with consumers increasingly spending on travel and experiences rather than liquor, impacting demand [4] - Analysts predict that the liquor industry may enter a "U-shaped" recovery cycle, with the first supply-demand inflection point expected in Q4 2025 [4][5] - Current market conditions indicate that while the liquor sector faces short-term challenges, there is potential for recovery by 2026 as companies optimize product structures and focus on core consumer experiences [5]