Crude Prices Move Higher on a Smaller-Than-Expected OPEC+ Production Hike

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices increased due to OPEC+'s smaller-than-expected production increase and reduced Russian crude output following a drone attack [2][3][4] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ agreed to a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting next month, which is significantly lower than market expectations of up to 500,000 bpd [3] - OPEC's crude production rose by 400,000 bpd in September to 29.05 million bpd, marking the highest level in 2.5 years [6] Group 2: Russian Production Impact - Russia's Kirishi oil refinery, with a capacity of 160,000 bpd, halted most of its production due to a Ukrainian drone attack, contributing to a tighter oil supply [4] - Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have reduced Russia's total refined-product flows to 1.94 million bpd in early September, the lowest in over 3.25 years [4] Group 3: Global Oil Supply Dynamics - A decrease in crude oil stored on stationary tankers fell by 7% week-over-week to 82.81 million barrels, indicating a bullish trend for oil prices [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a record surplus in the global oil market next year of 3.33 million bpd, which is 360,000 bpd higher than previous estimates [7]