长假过后，债市四季度如何布局？

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend, with various factors influencing its performance, including macroeconomic data and policy changes [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since July, the equity market has been rising, leading to a correction in the bond market, with the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds reaching above the 75th percentile for 2023, indicating improved cost-effectiveness for pure bond assets [1][3]. - As of September 30, the interbank bond market showed mixed yield movements, with the 10-year yield around 1.86%, reflecting a general upward trend in bond yields since September [2]. - The bond market is under pressure due to factors such as unexpected developments in US-China negotiations and increased redemption pressures from bond funds [2]. Group 2: Positive Factors - Despite the seasonal weakness in September, there are positive indicators, including weak macro data and a shift in the central bank's reverse repurchase auction method, suggesting a supportive monetary policy stance [3]. - The reduction in new bond supply for October is expected to positively impact the bond market, with government bond net financing projected to decrease significantly compared to previous months [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - In the current environment of market volatility, maintaining an open mindset is recommended, as fundamental support remains strong [6]. - Analysts suggest focusing on short-term and cross-product arbitrage opportunities, as well as identifying underpriced bonds with buying support [6]. - The bond market is believed to be in a bottoming phase, with potential for improved cost-effectiveness, particularly as the fourth quarter approaches [6].