高市早苗胜选后日元逼近155大关，下一道干预红线何在？

Group 1 - The unexpected election of high-ranking official Takemi Saimai as the new leader of the ruling party has led to a significant depreciation of the Japanese yen, with the exchange rate approaching the critical psychological level of 155 yen per dollar [1] - The yen's decline has prompted the Japanese Ministry of Finance to closely monitor excessive fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, indicating potential intervention if the depreciation continues [1][2] - Market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in October have diminished due to Saimai's victory, with analysts suggesting that any rate increase may be postponed until December [1][3] Group 2 - The yen is nearing the intervention levels previously established by the Bank of Japan in 2024, with specific points of intervention identified around 157.99 to 161.76 yen per dollar [2] - Analysts from SBI FXTRADE have stated that there is currently no incentive to buy yen unless strong warnings are issued by the Ministry of Finance or signals of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan are provided [2] - Following the election results, Bank of America has revised its year-end forecast for the dollar-yen exchange rate from 153 to 155, while Deutsche Bank has downgraded its yen rating from "bullish" to "neutral" [3] Group 3 - The appointment of former finance ministers Shunichi Suzuki and Taro Aso to senior positions within the ruling party has provided some reassurance to market participants regarding fiscal policy stability [3] - The market's expectation for a rate hike in October has dropped significantly, from over 60% to approximately 25%, indicating a shift in sentiment following the election [3] - The future trajectory of the yen's value is heavily dependent on guidance from the Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda regarding short-term interest rate policies [3]