30倍暴利、成功率不足1%！交易员“逆市”豪赌欧央行将大幅降息

Group 1 - Traders are betting on options trading, anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will unexpectedly lower interest rates multiple times before mid-next year, with a target of up to three 25 basis point cuts by June, significantly higher than the 10 basis points implied by the money market [1][3] - The most profitable outcome from these bets could yield nearly €9 million (approximately $10.5 million), which is over 30 times the initial investment, although the probability of success is less than 1% [1] - The total number of open contracts benefiting from a rate cut, expiring in June, has reached 1.35 million, more than double the level from five weeks ago, with the largest increase seen in contracts expiring in September, which rose by 50% [3] Group 2 - Following the ECB's reduction of the deposit rate to 2% in June, policymakers have indicated that the tightening cycle is nearing its end, while the market has gradually lowered the likelihood of further easing [3] - Economists predict that the ECB's deposit rate will remain at 2% until 2027, yet some analysts continue to forecast further rate cuts, with Morgan Stanley expecting the benchmark rate to drop to 1.5% by March due to anticipated economic slowdown and wage growth deceleration [3]