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经济热点问答丨国际金价缘何再创历史新高
Xin Hua Wang·2025-10-08 12:00

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have recently reached a historic high, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, driven by increased global demand for safe-haven assets and declining confidence in the U.S. dollar [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On October 7, the most actively traded December 2025 gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange hit a record high of $4,014.60 per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of approximately 50% this year [1]. - The strong performance of gold is attributed to a prevailing "fear of missing out" sentiment among investors, which outweighs profit-taking emotions, leading to sustained buying pressure despite overbought conditions [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The combination of U.S. government shutdown, political instability in France, economic concerns in Japan, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts has significantly boosted the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and increased fiscal uncertainty in the U.S. have enhanced gold's appeal, as investors seek to mitigate risks by increasing their gold holdings [3]. - Recent monetary policy actions by the Federal Reserve, including potential interest rate cuts, have diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, further supporting gold prices [3]. - Central banks globally have resumed large-scale gold purchases, with a reported net increase of 15 tons in August, and significant inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have risen by 17% year-to-date [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Looking ahead, if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates and geopolitical tensions persist, gold prices may continue to rise [4]. - However, some analysts caution that the market should be wary of potential short-term corrections, with expectations that gold prices may fluctuate between $3,800 and $4,100 per ounce for the remainder of the year [4]. - Despite the potential for short-term adjustments, long-term forecasts remain bullish, with predictions of gold reaching $4,200 per ounce from UBS and possibly challenging $5,000 if the Fed maintains a dovish stance through 2026 [5].