金价狂飙成国庆市场焦点，央行11个月连购动作会否持续

Core Viewpoint - The asset status of gold has been further strengthened under multiple macro variables, with gold prices reaching historic highs amid geopolitical tensions and monetary policy changes [1][10]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On October 7, 2025, New York futures gold prices first hit $4000 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 0.55% and an annual rise of over 50% [1][6]. - As of October 8, 2025, spot gold prices reached $4040 per ounce, continuing to set new historical records [1][6]. - The year-to-date performance of international spot gold has shown a significant increase from approximately $2650 per ounce at the beginning of the year to over $4000 [6]. Group 2: Central Bank Gold Reserves - As of September 2025, China's official gold reserves increased to 7.406 million ounces, marking the 11th consecutive month of growth, although the monthly increase has been lower than previous months [1][6]. - The continuous small-scale purchases by the central bank signal a clear intention to optimize foreign exchange reserves amid rising international gold prices [1][7]. - China's gold reserves account for only 7.7% of total reserves, significantly below the global average of 15%, indicating substantial room for optimization [9]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of September 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $333.87 billion, marking a $16.5 billion increase from August and the highest level since December 2015 [2][3]. - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is primarily driven by global financial market changes, including a 0.7% rise in dollar-denominated global bond indices and a 3.5% increase in the S&P 500 index in September [2][3]. - The stability of foreign exchange reserves is supported by China's economic fundamentals and policy environment, including progress in international trade negotiations [3][4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the long-term upward trend of gold prices will continue due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][10]. - The trend of de-dollarization and rising U.S. debt risks are expected to further enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [8]. - The central bank's strategy of increasing gold reserves is aligned with the global trend of central banks increasing their gold holdings, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to raise their gold reserves in the next 12 months [7][8].