ClearBridge Value Strategy Q3 2025 Commentary

Core Insights - The Inelastic Market Hypothesis (IMH) suggests that for every $1 of capital flows, the market's aggregate value changes by approximately $5, indicating significant market volatility compared to underlying fundamentals [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) and the rise of passive investing have created inelastic demand in the market, distorting price signals and leading to misallocated capital [5][8] - The current market environment is characterized by a high level of kinetic energy due to concentrated capital flows into U.S. indexes, which poses risks of sudden market corrections [11][13] Market Dynamics - The price elasticity of demand in the stock market is relatively low, meaning that price increases do not significantly dampen buying demand, while price decreases do not substantially increase demand [3] - Passive investing has become a dominant driver of equity prices, with estimates suggesting that for every $1 of passive inflows, the market's aggregate value increases by approximately $3 to $8 [8] - The market is increasingly acting like a casino, with a proliferation of leveraged ETFs and options trading, which adds volatility and risk to the investment landscape [9][10] Investment Strategy - The company employs a valuation-disciplined investment process that is highly price elastic, allowing for aggressive buying during market downturns and risk shedding during periods of greed [4] - The strategy focuses on diversifying portfolios by mixing potential energy (value) with kinetic energy (momentum), particularly in sectors like healthcare and materials that offer attractive free cash flow yields [18][21] - The company has identified Amazon as a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong balance sheet and potential benefits from AI, while exiting positions in companies like Expedia due to emerging competitive threats [21][22] Performance Overview - The ClearBridge Value Strategy underperformed its benchmark, the Russell 1000 Value Index, during a period of subdued returns for value stocks [17][24] - Stock selection in the healthcare sector contributed positively to performance, while the financials sector detracted from returns due to declines in specific holdings [19][20] - The strategy continues to find opportunities in undervalued stocks with high free cash flow yields, particularly in sectors that have fallen out of favor [18][24]