国际金价缘何再创历史新高

Group 1: Core Insights - International gold prices have recently reached a historic high, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, with a peak at $4,014.60 per ounce, reflecting a 50% increase this year, making gold one of the best-performing major assets globally [1][3] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to rising global risk aversion and declining confidence in the U.S. dollar, driven by factors such as U.S. government shutdowns, economic uncertainties in various countries, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts [3][4] - Analysts suggest that investors should allocate approximately 15% of their assets to gold, as it is viewed as a superior asset during downturns in other investment areas [1][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900, citing strong demand from central banks and private sector diversification [2] - Central banks are expected to purchase 80 tons and 70 tons of gold annually in the next two years, with emerging market central banks increasing their gold reserves to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [2][5] - The World Gold Council reported a net increase of 15 tons in gold reserves by central banks in August, and gold ETF holdings rose by 3.6 million ounces, marking a 17% increase year-to-date [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Future gold price trends may continue to rise if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates further, the U.S. dollar remains weak, and geopolitical tensions persist [4][5] - Some analysts warn of potential short-term corrections, with predictions of gold prices fluctuating between $3,800 and $4,100 per ounce for the remainder of the year [4] - Long-term forecasts remain bullish, with UBS predicting gold could reach $4,200 and Citigroup suggesting a challenge to the $5,000 mark if the Fed continues to lower rates in 2026 [5]