黄金突破4000美元/盎司！布雷顿森林体系瓦解以来金价涨了102倍， 黄金缘何成为全球最“赚钱”大类资产？

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged past $4000 per ounce, driven by a weak dollar, geopolitical tensions, and increased demand from various buyers, including ETFs and central banks [1][3][9] Group 1: Price Trends - As of October 8, gold prices reached a high of $4030 per ounce, marking a nearly 15% increase since September [3] - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 53%, nearly double the previous year's increase of 27.26% [3] - Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, gold prices have increased by approximately 10204%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index, which rose by 7238% during the same period [2][5][13] Group 2: Factors Driving Demand - High demand for gold is attributed to four main factors: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts leading to a weaker dollar, ongoing central bank purchases, geopolitical instability, and increased liquidity in the market [9][18] - Emerging market central banks are expected to continue diversifying their foreign exchange reserves by increasing gold holdings, with net purchases projected to average 80 tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026 [1][16] - The World Gold Council reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand in Q2 2025, with a significant 45% rise in value, reaching $132 billion [17] Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical data shows that gold has consistently outperformed other commodities, including WTI crude oil and LME copper, due to its inflation-hedging properties [10][12] - The last time gold experienced such a significant annual increase was in 1979, during a global energy crisis that led to inflation [3][12] - The relationship between gold prices and the dollar index has shown a negative correlation, with gold prices rising significantly even as the dollar index fell by 19% over the past 55 years [13][15] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to outperform the S&P 500 index due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [18] - The trend of increasing allocations to gold by investment institutions has risen from 5% to 10%-20% in response to global risks, further supporting gold's valuation [8][18] - The overall logic driving gold prices remains unchanged, influenced by monetary policy, economic conditions, liquidity, and geopolitical factors [18]