布雷顿森林体系瓦解以来金价涨了102倍， 黄金缘何成为全球最“赚钱”大类资产？

Core Insights - Gold prices have surpassed $4000 per ounce, driven by a weak dollar and geopolitical tensions, making it one of the most profitable asset classes globally [1][3] - Goldman Sachs attributes the recent surge in gold prices to increased purchases by three key buyers: rising Western ETF positions, potential acceleration of central bank purchases, and heightened speculative positions [1][3] - Emerging market central banks are expected to continue diversifying their foreign exchange reserves by increasing gold holdings, with net purchases projected to average 80 tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026 [1][3] Price Trends - Gold prices have seen a remarkable increase of 53% year-to-date, nearly doubling last year's growth of 27.26% [3] - Since the beginning of 2023, COMEX gold prices have risen from $2627.50 per ounce to over $4030 per ounce, marking a significant upward trend [3] - Historical data shows that gold has outperformed other major assets, with a cumulative increase of 866.87% since 1990, compared to WTI crude oil (172.74%) and LME copper (336.94%) [1][3] Long-term Performance - Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, gold prices have surged by 10204%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index, which rose by 7238% during the same period [2][5] - The long-term performance of gold is attributed to its status as a safe-haven asset during global economic and financial crises, which has led to its consistent outperformance against equities [7][8] Market Dynamics - The recent rise in gold prices is influenced by several factors, including the potential for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical instability, and increased central bank gold purchases [9][10] - Investment institutions are now allocating a higher percentage of their portfolios to gold, ranging from 10% to 20%, compared to only 5% two to three decades ago, reflecting a shift in risk management strategies [8][9] Future Outlook - The World Gold Council projects a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand for Q2 2025, with a significant rise in value-driven demand [17] - Analysts suggest that the underlying logic driving gold prices remains unchanged, influenced by monetary policy, economic conditions, liquidity, and geopolitical factors, indicating a strong likelihood of continued price increases [18]