国际金价今年累计上涨约50%

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surged approximately 50% this year, reaching a historic high of over $4,000 per ounce, driven by increased global demand for safe-haven assets and declining confidence in the US dollar [1] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 reached a peak of $4,014.60 per ounce, marking a significant milestone in the gold market [1] - Analysts suggest that the prevailing "fear of missing out" sentiment among investors is stronger than profit-taking, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices despite signs of overbuying [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Multiple factors, including US government shutdowns, political instability in France, economic concerns in Japan and the US, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, have collectively heightened the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The weakening US dollar and increased fiscal uncertainty have made gold more attractive, as the US government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, leaving investors uncertain about the economic outlook [1] - The recent dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, including potential interest rate cuts, has diminished the appeal of dollar-denominated assets, further supporting gold prices [1] Group 3: Central Bank and ETF Demand - Central banks globally have resumed significant gold purchases, with a reported net increase of 15 tons in August, contributing to the upward trend in gold prices [1] - Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen a substantial inflow, with holdings increasing by 3.6 million ounces in September, marking a 17% rise year-to-date, the highest level since September 2022 [1] Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Analysts predict that if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates and geopolitical tensions persist, gold prices may continue to rise [1] - However, some investment banks caution that gold may face short-term adjustments, with potential price fluctuations between $3,800 and $4,100 per ounce for the remainder of the year [1] - Long-term forecasts remain bullish, with UBS projecting gold prices could reach $4,200, while Citigroup suggests a potential challenge of the $5,000 mark if the Fed maintains a dovish stance through 2026 [1]