实探“双节”假期车市：车企降价促销力度收缩

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is experiencing a reduced intensity and scope of promotional activities during the traditional "Silver October" sales season, influenced by various factors including government policies and rising raw material costs [2][6][10]. Group 1: Promotional Activities - Several automotive brands, including Li Auto and Xpeng, have announced promotional policies for the National Day holiday, offering cash subsidies and other incentives, but the actual discounts for consumers are only around 2,000 to 3,000 yuan, which is less than in previous years [5][10]. - The promotional efforts during this holiday season are notably weaker compared to previous years, with manufacturers being cautious about price reductions due to ongoing regulatory measures against "involution" competition [6][10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The automotive market is expected to see a significant "tail effect" in the fourth quarter, driven by strong consumer demand and the upcoming restoration of the vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles starting January 1, 2026 [6][10]. - The relationship between sales volume and pricing is highlighted, indicating that lower sales lead to lower prices, while higher sales stabilize prices [7]. Group 3: Impact of Subsidy Changes - The suspension of the "trade-in" subsidy in several regions has negatively impacted foot traffic and sales during the holiday period, with many consumers adopting a wait-and-see approach [8][9]. - The cessation of these subsidies has led to a noticeable decline in customer visits and sales transactions, with some dealerships reporting a significant drop in sales after the subsidy announcement [8][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the suspension of some local "trade-in" subsidies, there is optimism among dealers, with 44.4% predicting a 5% to 10% year-on-year growth in sales for the fourth quarter [10]. - The government plans to allocate 69 billion yuan to support local "trade-in" subsidy policies, suggesting that most regions will continue to implement these incentives throughout the year [10][11].