连续回升！9月制造业PMI为49.8%

Core Insights - The September Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China indicates a slight improvement in economic output, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points [1][2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has shown a continuous recovery, with a production index of 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points, reaching a six-month high, and a new orders index of 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points [2] - Factors contributing to the recovery include seasonal improvements, the implementation of consumer loan subsidies, and a more active domestic capital market, which has boosted market confidence [2][3] - The prices of major raw materials have decreased, with purchasing prices down 0.1 percentage points to 53.2% and factory prices down 0.9 percentage points to 48.2% [3] - Key manufacturing sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods are expanding, with PMIs of 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all above the manufacturing average [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 50.0%, with the service sector index at 50.1%, both indicating a decline [4][5] - The drop in service sector activity is attributed to the seasonal effects post-summer and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival, which has delayed consumer activities [4][5] - Despite the overall decline, sectors such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services remain in a high-growth zone with indices above 60.0% [5] Construction Sector - The construction business activity index is at 49.3%, showing a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, but still below the expansion threshold [6] - The construction activity is weak, particularly in civil engineering and housing, indicating a need for improved project coordination and funding [6] - Recent data shows a 9.0% month-on-month increase in housing transactions in 30 major cities, and a 14.4% increase in land transactions, reflecting typical seasonal patterns [6]