Shell Expects Higher Q3 LNG Output and Stronger Gas Trading

Core Insights - Shell plc has released its third-quarter 2025 update, providing a detailed forecast of operational and financial expectations, highlighting trends in production, margins, and strategic focus areas [1] Integrated Gas - The Integrated Gas segment is expected to maintain strong performance with production forecasted at 910-950 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/d), slightly up from 913 kboe/d in the second quarter [2] - LNG liquefaction volumes are projected to rise to 7-7.4 million tons (MT), up from 6.7 MT in the previous quarter, reflecting Shell's leverage of its global LNG infrastructure [2] - Trading & Optimization results are anticipated to be significantly higher than the second quarter, indicating its role as a key earnings driver [3] Upstream - The Upstream division shows an increase in production expectations to 1,790-1,890 kboe/d, up from 1,732 kboe/d in the second quarter, indicating operational improvements [4] - Adjusted earnings are expected to take a hit of $0.2-$0.4 billion due to the rebalancing of participation interests in Brazil's Tupi field, reflecting a finalization of a redetermination process [4] Marketing - Marketing sales volumes are projected to be between 2,650-3,050 kb/d, down from 2,813 kb/d in the second quarter, yet adjusted earnings are expected to be higher than the previous quarter, indicating better margins or cost management [5] Chemicals & Products - The indicative refining margin is projected to rise to $11.6 per barrel (bbl) from $8.9/bbl in the second quarter, reflecting stronger global demand for refined products [6] - Chemicals margin is forecasted to dip to $160 per ton, with an anticipated adjusted loss in the Chemicals sub-segment, highlighting ongoing challenges in the chemicals market [6] Renewables & Energy Solutions - The Renewables and Energy Solutions segment is projected to have adjusted earnings between a loss of $0.2 billion and a profit of $0.4 billion, indicating volatility and inconsistency as an earnings contributor [7] Corporate and Group-Level Highlights - Shell expects payable tax to decrease to between $2.1-$2.9 billion from $3.4 billion in the second quarter [9] - Working capital movements are projected to range from a loss of $3 billion to a profit of $1 billion, reflecting typical quarter-to-quarter volatility [9] - A non-cash impairment of approximately $0.6 billion is expected in the Marketing segment due to the cancellation of the Rotterdam HEFA project [9] Conclusion - Shell's third-quarter 2025 outlook indicates a company leveraging strengths in LNG and refining while managing challenges in chemicals and Brazil, navigating the complexities of the energy transition [11]