英国央行预警全球市场暴跌“两大风险点”：美股AI估值堪比互联网泡沫、美联储独立性受威胁

Group 1 - The Bank of England warns that a pessimistic sentiment regarding the prospects of artificial intelligence or the independence of the Federal Reserve could lead to a significant downturn in global financial markets [1] - The Financial Policy Committee of the Bank of England indicates that the risk of a major market correction has increased, marking the strongest warning to date regarding potential market crashes triggered by AI [1] - The committee highlights that the spillover effects of such shocks on the UK financial system could be "quite severe" [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England expresses concern that a sudden change in perception regarding the credibility of the Federal Reserve could lead to significant price adjustments in dollar assets, including U.S. sovereign debt, resulting in higher volatility and risk premiums globally [2] - The cost of borrowing for the UK government is closely tied to U.S. Treasury yields, and a decline in U.S. bond prices is likely to increase the debt servicing costs of newly issued UK public debt [2] - The recent interest rate hikes reflect concerns over the high levels of borrowing in developed economies, exacerbated by political uncertainties in France and Japan [2] Group 3 - The Bank of England notes that 30% of the valuation in the S&P 500 is contributed by the top five companies, the highest concentration in 50 years [3] - Current price valuations based on past earnings are at their highest level since the internet bubble 25 years ago, although future profit expectations make these valuations appear less alarming [3] - The concentration of funds within market indices is rising, and if expectations regarding the impact of AI become less optimistic, the market could face significant risks [3] Group 4 - The Bank of England assesses that domestic financial stability risks have not changed significantly, as households and businesses continue to cope with rising inflation, which is projected to reach 4% in September [4] - Risk managers surveyed by the Bank of England express greater confidence in the stability of the UK financial system compared to six months ago, identifying cyberattacks and geopolitical factors as the main threats [4] - The Bank of England maintains its regulatory measures for banks, keeping the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) at 2% and the minimum leverage ratio at 3.25% after an annual review [4]