Citi's Scott Chronert: Look for volatility into Q3, but be prepared to trade year end rally

Market Outlook - The year-end target for the US equity market is set at 6,600, with a recent adjustment to 6,700, indicating a positive outlook for a 5% upside run into the end of the year [1][2] - Anticipation of solid Q3 results, but uncertainty exists regarding sufficient upside in estimates to support short-term market action [2][4] Earnings Expectations - EPS growth expectations for the index are around 8%, which may be challenging to achieve compared to Q2 results [3][4] - The market has been supported by a "beat and raise" narrative, but this may be difficult to sustain in the short term [4][5] Sector Analysis - Communication services have been downgraded to market weight after being overweight for two and a half years, indicating a cautious approach due to high pricing in the sector [5] - Technology and semiconductors remain overweight, with banks also in good shape, suggesting resilience in these sectors [6] Market Risks - Concerns exist regarding the AI-affected portion of the market, which constitutes roughly half of the S&P 500 market cap, due to heightened expectations [7][8] - Short-term volatility risks are acknowledged, particularly in the context of quarterly reporting [9] Consumer Sentiment - Labor conditions and valuation are key discussion points, with a focus on cyclical sectors like banks and certain retailers as the market leans into Q4 [10][11] - Despite potential issues in consumer sentiment and spending patterns, the upper half of the income distribution is expected to drive retail performance during the holiday season [12] Alternative Investments - Continued positive outlook for Bitcoin and Ether, with expectations for follow-through in these asset classes [13] - Gold and crypto are viewed as hedges in a momentum-driven equity market, indicating a strategic approach to navigating market conditions [14] Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown is considered a temporary issue, but prolonged uncertainty could have a more significant impact on the market [15]