Bear of the Day: Oscar Health (OSCR)

Core Insights - Oscar Health is a $5 billion digital health-insurance company expected to achieve profitability from 2023 to 2026, but analysts have downgraded their EPS forecast from a profit of $0.61 to a loss of $1.42 in recent months [1] - Next year's profit projection has also shifted from a profit of $0.54 to a loss of $0.67, while revenue consensus remains unchanged at $11.26 billion, indicating a 6.6% decline compared to this year's guidance [2] Competitive Landscape - Oscar Health faces competition from both technology-driven startups and established legacy providers, including Clover Health, Bright Health, Lemonade, NeueHealth, and Sidecar Health, all of which emphasize digital-first, member-centric insurance models [3] - The company also competes against traditional insurers like UnitedHealthcare, Blue Cross Blue Shield, and CNO Financial, highlighting a diverse competitive landscape that includes specialized insurtech firms and large payors with significant market presence [4] Market Reaction - Following the 2025 guidance update, Oscar's shares increased from $13 to $23, reflecting investor optimism despite the downward revision in profit outlook [4] - Analyst price targets have been adjusted upward, with the average target around $11, indicating over 50% downside potential, while Wells Fargo recently raised its target from $10 to $14 but maintained an Underweight rating [5] - Oscar shares have surged 75% since the revenue guidance increase, yet analysts have revised their profit forecasts downward, projecting losses instead [6]