金价，再创新高！还会继续涨吗？专家解答

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to increased market uncertainty due to the U.S. government shutdown, leading to heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][2]. Short-term Factors - The U.S. government shutdown has significantly increased market risk aversion, causing a halt in various public services and the suspension of key economic data releases, which complicates the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1]. - Market expectations are leaning towards the Federal Reserve potentially implementing preemptive interest rate cuts in response to risks of a deteriorating job market and economic slowdown [1]. Long-term Trends - The global trend of central banks diversifying their asset allocations and increasing gold reserves has been a driving force behind the long-term upward trend in gold prices [2]. - Over the past three years, global central banks have added more than 1,000 tons of gold annually, significantly higher than the previous decade's average of 400 to 500 tons per year [2]. Investment Outlook - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and UBS have raised their short-term gold price targets to $4,200 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs projects a price of $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 [3]. - The proportion of gold in global central bank asset allocations is currently 24.25%, while for private investors, it stands at only 2.24%, indicating substantial room for growth in private gold investments [3]. Market Dynamics - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 51.6% in New York and 51.8% in London, leading to potential overbought conditions in the market [3]. - The surge in speculative positions in the gold market has raised concerns about the sustainability of the recent price increases [3].