Private data shows weakening job market even as stocks soar

Job Market Overview - The Carlyle Group's dashboard indicates September payroll gains at just 17,000, a decline from August, suggesting muted hiring despite stable output [2] - ADP's September report shows a drop of 32,000 in private payrolls, marking the steepest decline since 2023, with small businesses significantly affected and soft wage growth [2] - The Institute for Supply Management's services survey reveals employment shrinking for the fourth consecutive month, with more companies cutting jobs than adding them [3] Consumer Sentiment - The New York Fed's survey indicates rising consumer concerns about job loss and expectations of higher unemployment [3] - The Conference Board's indicators show fewer respondents considering jobs as "plentiful," reflecting a shift in labor market perception [3] - Goldman Sachs' measure of labor-market tightness has reverted to conditions similar to 2015, signaling potential challenges for job seekers [3] Economic Context - Despite the weak job market indicators, the stock market continues to rise, with major indexes approaching record highs [5] - There is a sense of an impending slowdown that has yet to materialize, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty in the market [5] Employment Trends - The overall job market is characterized as disinflating rather than collapsing, with low hiring rates but no significant spike in layoffs [4] - State jobless claims remain low, indicating that widespread layoffs are not currently occurring [4]